Predictions - 2021 and Beyond

As a foreword, these thoughts and predictions are my own observations and not intended to provide any sort of advice.

I'm predicting in 2021 that we will begin to see a major decline in the US dollar as the predominant world currency. The US is approaching $30 trillion in debt and continues to pump unprecedented stimulus money into the economy. Meanwhile, the American political landscape is tearing at the seams with groups like Antifa, Proud Boys and BLM increasing their ranks on a daily basis. 

I also predict that China will continue to grow and assert its dominance in Eastern Asia, even stretching their soft power within the United States. After having lived in China for 4.5 years, I truly believe that China is far more unified than the US, and that China will soon overtake the American economy just as the Chinese Yuan will eventually surpass the US dollar. 

I think that the decline of the US dollar will eventually lead to massive inflation, which means increased prices for basic foods and medicines. If a peaceful solution isn't settled upon, the lack of basic supplies will lead to more looting, violence and possibly even a 2nd civil war. If this does happen, some states (Texas being first?) may eventually decide to secede from the Union and form separate currencies, backed by precious metals. Those who own investments such as silver, gold and Bitcoin will see massive increases in those currencies, and may be spared from some of the poverty of other Americans who didn't invest in these things. 

My concern is that we are witnessing a perfect storm in the United States. Debts, inflation and political tensions are all increasing at a breakneck speed. If I were a political meteorologist, I might label this a category 5 political hurricane in its early stages. However, I'm just one simple blogger who might be wrong about all of these things. Yet I am also not blind to the signs. Despite all of these possible challenges ahead of us, I strongly  believe that good can and will come out of even the most dire of situations - especially for those with love at the center of their lives.

Edit: 2022, Jan 19. I've been thinking this for a week or so for some reason and not sure why. But I have a feeling we're heading into some sort of Civil War again in the US. For some reason I think it's going to begin around the Philadelphia area. Not sure why, just a feeling or a sense of what may come.

Edit: 2022, Jan 31: I sense that the anger, hatred, vengeance and retribution towards those mandating vaccines will be severe in the years to come - especially by parents who have children that attained vax injuries. The amount of pain, absolute heartache and loss is unimaginable in parents and other relatives of loved ones injured or killed by the vaccines. This will turn to hatred, I feel. And revenge does not bring back the loved one. This will not be a happy ending, I am afraid.

Edit: 2022, Feb 10. I have a sense that there will be many tragic long-term effects of the covid vaccine. I sense they will have to do with the nervous system, basic movement, speech and being able to do normal functions of every day life. This will cause unbearable sorrow in those forever wounded by the vaccine. Dreams, hopes, futures, careers, finances and more will be crushed.

5-30-22. I'm predicting that roughly 5 years from now the US will no longer be the #1 world superpower. This will be bad for most Americans, but those who are debt free will be far better off than those living in extreme debt, and they can possibly escape or withstand the coming storm. 

11/8/22. I do think that when all of these horrors of the next five years or so are over, the world will actually be in a better spot. But getting through these years will possibly require living off the land perhaps.

Chinese Riots and US Debt

Here's a video of Chinese rioting over a disputed island that is also claimed by the Japanese. These islands are valuable, not because of the beautiful scenery, but because of the oil that lies beneath them.

China has also expressed clear warnings over the $1.3 trillion in Treasury bonds that is owed to China by the United States. My experience in China has taught me that most fights in China are started over money and people feeling dishonored by not receiving their money.

In my opinion, the US is playing with serious fire by adding to this debt every year, rather than balancing the budget.

Is America a Police State?

Last February when I was home, I was riding my mountain bike in the street and it started to snow. A big SUV pulled up next to me and a cop started questioning me about where I live, what am I doing outside, etc. He ordered me, in a stern voice, to go home. I was pretty shaken by his angry tone, and I thought, what the heck? I can ride my bike in a light snow if I want. This is crazy. Of course, maybe he had good intentions, as I generally believe cops do. But I also could sense an unnecessary tone and some sort of a power trip.

I find it interesting that in communist China I could never imagine anything like this happening. The police in China have the opposite problem - they have too little power and often don't get involved when they should (they don't even carry guns). In my few years of living here I've never seen a cop car pull over another car or chase down a speeding car. Generally they just let cameras do the work of writing speeding and red light tickets. Cops will get involved in fights here, but often after it's too late or seriously escalated. Also, bribes are often accepted to thwart any sense of true justice.

In the video below, I don't know what happened in advance. Maybe these guys were disturbing the public somehow. But the police response seems harsh to me, especially after living in China for a long time. Granted, in general, I'd take American cops over Chinese cops, simply because they get involved when they should. My complaint is that they also sometimes get involved when they shouldn't. And in this regard, they could learn from Chinese police.

Should Minimum Wage Be Raised

Many fast food workers here in China make about $2 an hour. To survive, they often live with their families, eat a lot of rice and use public transportation. I think this is very sad and I think they deserve more money. On the opposite side of the world, Americans are saying it's impossible to survive on less than $15 while doing the exact same work. There's got to be some sort of middle ground here. What are your thoughts?

Benefits of a Free Market

Sure, extreme and unrestrained capitalism has its flaws. But a free market also has its merits. Today I was buying a new charger for my eBike and the first shop I visited tried charging me double. Most likely they thought I was new to China and didn't know the price. I told him that the shop down the street sells the same charger for half the price. He got angry and started yelling - most likely at the fact that he will have to learn to compete in a free market.

Chinese Immigration Law Vs. American Immigration Law

I find that US immigration law is extremely liberal compared to China. For example, to use high speed rails, rent an apartment, fly on an airplane or stay at any hotel, Chinese citizens need their ID Card (equivalent of Social Security Card) and foreigners like me need a Passport with current Visa. If my Visa is expired I'm fined roughly $100 per day that I've overstayed, and then I'm deported until I get a current Visa. 

Beijing laws are even more strict. Today a friend told me that when he was in Beijing he had a hard time finding a hotel simply because he's a foreigner. He and his colleagues went to 5 or 6 hotels before one accepted them. I Googled it to find out why and read this: "Every foreigner in Beijing checking into a hotel must present a passport and current Visa. That information is then hand-written on multi-part, carbon-paper forms forwarded daily to the PSB, public security bureau, to verify paperwork of foreigners." Apparently many hotels in Beijing hate dealing with the PSB, so they don't allow foreigners.

I've been in China for over two years now and haven't seen or heard of one "undocumented immigrant" yet. Maybe they're here, but from what I've seen, they simply aren't allowed. Sure, having proper documentation is a hassle. But as a guest in China, I've never felt victimized that China enforces their immigration laws.

Which Country Has the World's Biggest Economy?

China used to be an authentically communist country, and this led to at least 36 million Chinese people starving to death during the great famine of China (Link). In response, China finally reformed their economy in 1978, switching to a capitalist / free market system (Link). This year (2014), China will pass the United States as the world's leading economic power (Link). 

I am currently living in Shenzhen, China, and on a daily basis I am witnessing the growing prosperity here. Disturbing pictures of starving people have been replaced by cities filled with rising skyscrapers and streets filled with expensive cars. Of course, there are still income inequality problems in China. However, this is a better problem to have than a country filled with zero income households. In fact, after replacing communism with free market capitalism, China is quickly becoming the richest country in the world.

Which system do you think works better, a communist system or a free market system?